FTMatchday 1

Real Madrid vs Marseille: Prediction

📍 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

Real Madrid2

Marseille1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

3 goals

Real MadridMarseille

Trent Alexander-Arnoldon5'
22'Timothy Weahassist Mason Greenwood
Kylian Mbappépenalty28'
Aurelien Tchouameniyellow card35'
46'Benjamin Pavardyellow card
Éder Militãoyellow card54'
Franco Mastantuonoon63'
Rodrygoon63'
66'Matt O'Rileyon
67'Geoffrey Kondogbiaon
Daniel Carvajalred card72'
Arda Güleron73'
75'Facundo Axel Medinayellow card
78'Emerson Palmierion
78'Timothy Weahon
Kylian Mbappépenalty81'
88'Benjamin Pavardon
Álvaro Carrerasyellow card90'

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

Real MadridMarseille

43%Possession57%
4Expected goals (xG)1
28Shots15
15Shots on target5
9Corners4
9Fouls14
3Yellow cards2
1Red cards0
1Offsides3
4Saves13
402Passes524

Line-ups

Real Madrid

1Thibaut Courtois
12Trent Alexander-Arnold
10Kylian Mbappé
3Éder Militão
8Federico Valverde
11Rodrygo
14Aurelien Tchouameni
15Arda Güler
18Álvaro Carreras
24Dean Huijsen
30Franco Mastantuono

Marseille

23Pierre Hojbjerg
1Geronimo Rulli
19Geoffrey Kondogbia
97Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
33Emerson Palmieri
28Benjamin Pavard
22Timothy Weah
5Leonardo Balerdi
10Mason Greenwood
32Facundo Axel Medina
17Matt O'Riley

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1567 – 1497

Recent form

Real MadridWWW

MarseilleLWLW

#	Team	P	GD	Pts

Head to head

Not enough past results yet.

Match preview

Real Madrid host Marseille in the UEFA Champions League on 16 September 2025. Real Madrid sit 5th on 12 points and Marseille are 21st on 6. Real Madrid have won 3 of their last 3 (WWW), while Marseille have won 2 of 4 (LWLW). There is no recent head-to-head record between these sides in our data. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.