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Kick-off · Matchday 5

Manchester City vs Napoli: Prediction

Manchester City
55%Home win
Napoli

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.92 – 1.17
Team rating (Elo)1535 – 1480

Recent form

Manchester CityLWWLL
NapoliLLWDW
#TeamPGDPts

Head to head

  • Manchester City 2–0 Napoli2025-09-18

Match preview

Manchester City host Napoli in the UEFA Champions League on 24 November 2026. Manchester City sit 25th on 6 points and Napoli are 51st on 3. Manchester City have won 2 of their last 5 (LWWLL), while Napoli have won 2 of 5 (LLWDW). In their last 1 meetings, Manchester City won 1, Napoli won 0 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Manchester City 55%, the draw 22% and Napoli 23%, so Manchester City are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.

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