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FTMatchday 5

Fiorentina vs Napoli: Prediction

Fiorentina1
FT
Napoli1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

2 goals
FiorentinaNapoli
  1. 23'Billy Gilmourassist Matteo Politano
  2. Franco Mastantuonoyellow card42'
  3. Vieryon46'
  4. Álex Jiménezassist Cher Ndour51'
  5. 58'Noa Langon

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–
Expected goals (model)–
Team rating (Elo)1464 – 1480

Recent form

FiorentinaWDLLW
NapoliWWLLW
#TeamPGDPts
1Napoli8+714
2Fiorentina8-75

Head to head

  • Napoli 2–1 Fiorentina2026-01-31
  • Fiorentina 1–3 Napoli2025-09-13

Match preview

Fiorentina host Napoli in the Serie A on 20 September 2026. Fiorentina sit 16th on 5 points and Napoli are 6th on 14. Fiorentina have won 2 of their last 5 (WDLLW), while Napoli have won 3 of 5 (WWLLW). In their last 2 meetings, Fiorentina won 0, Napoli won 2 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.

Upcoming