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FTMatchday 27

St Pauli vs Freiburg: Prediction

Not enough past results yet.

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–
Expected goals (model)–
Team rating (Elo)1409 – 1518

Recent form

St PauliWLWDL
FreiburgWLLDL
#TeamPGDPts
1Freiburg32-841
2St Pauli32-3123

Head to head

Not enough past results yet.

Match preview

St Pauli host Freiburg in the Bundesliga on 22 March 2026. St Pauli sit 18th on 23 points and Freiburg are 8th on 41. St Pauli have won 2 of their last 5 (WLWDL), while Freiburg have won 1 of 5 (WLLDL). There is no recent head-to-head record between these sides in our data. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.

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