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FTMatchday 33

RB Leipzig vs St Pauli: Prediction

Not enough past results yet.

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–
Expected goals (model)–
Team rating (Elo)1482 – 1409

Recent form

RB LeipzigWWWWL
St PauliDLDLL
#TeamPGDPts
1RB Leipzig32+2164
2St Pauli32-3123

Head to head

  • St Pauli 1–1 RB Leipzig2026-01-27

Match preview

RB Leipzig host St Pauli in the Bundesliga on 9 May 2026. RB Leipzig sit 3rd on 64 points and St Pauli are 18th on 23. RB Leipzig have won 4 of their last 5 (WWWWL), while St Pauli have won 0 of 5 (DLDLL). In their last 1 meetings, RB Leipzig won 0, St Pauli won 0 and 1 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.

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