FTMatchday 23

Napoli vs Fiorentina: Prediction

📍 Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Napoli2

Fiorentina1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

3 goals

NapoliFiorentina

Antonio Vergaraassist Alex Meret11'
Giovanni Di Lorenzoon30'
44'Giovanni Fabbianyellow card
46'Giovanni Fabbianon
Miguel Gutiérrezassist Antonio Vergara49'
Alessandro Buongiornoyellow card54'
57'Manor Solomon
70'Robin Gosenson
70'Marco Brescianinion
71'Manor Solomonon
79'Albert Guðmundssonon
Antonio Vergaraon84'
Rasmus Højlundon90'

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

NapoliFiorentina

53%Possession47%
1.91Expected goals (xG)1.36
20Shots15
6Shots on target5
4Corners4
21Fouls13
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
0Offsides2
4Saves4
481Passes418

Line-ups

Napoli

5Juan Jesus
68Stanislav Lobotka
1Alex Meret
37Leonardo Spinazzola
8Scott McTominay
20Eljif Elmas
22Giovanni Di Lorenzo
4Alessandro Buongiorno
19Rasmus Højlund
3Miguel Gutiérrez
26Antonio Vergara

Fiorentina

43David de Gea
21Robin Gosens
91Roberto Piccoli
5Marin Pongračić
10Albert Guðmundsson
2Dodô
19Manor Solomon
4Marco Brescianini
44Nicolò Fagioli
80Giovanni Fabbian
15Pietro Comuzzo

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1465 – 1481

Recent form

NapoliDDDWL

FiorentinaWDDWL

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Napoli	35	+21	70
2	Fiorentina	35	-8	40

Head to head

Fiorentina 1–1 Napoli2026-09-20
Fiorentina 1–3 Napoli2025-09-13

Match preview

Napoli host Fiorentina in the Serie A on 31 January 2026. Napoli sit 2nd on 70 points and Fiorentina are 15th on 40. Napoli have won 1 of their last 5 (DDDWL), while Fiorentina have won 2 of 5 (WDDWL). In their last 2 meetings, Napoli won 1, Fiorentina won 0 and 1 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.