Kick-off · Sat, 19 Dec, 08:00 pm ISTMatchday 14
Mainz vs Köln: Prediction
Mainz57%Home win
Köln57% Home win21% Draw22% Away win
Tipster consensus · who picked what
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Most likely score2-1
Expected goals (model)2.02 – 1.19
Team rating (Elo)1499 – 1440
Recent form
MainzWLWLLKölnLLWLD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mainz | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 2 | Köln | 6 | -3 | 7 |
Head to head
- Köln 2–1 Mainz2026-01-17
- Mainz 0–1 Köln2025-08-24
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
