Kick-off · Sat, 12 Dec, 08:00 pm ISTMatchday 13
Mainz vs Freiburg: Prediction
Mainz49%Home win
Freiburg49% Home win23% Draw28% Away win
Tipster consensus · who picked what
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.81 – 1.33
Team rating (Elo)1514 – 1507
Recent form
MainzWWLWLFreiburgWDWLL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mainz | 6 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 | Freiburg | 6 | +2 | 10 |
Head to head
- Mainz 0–1 Freiburg2026-04-12
- Freiburg 4–0 Mainz2025-11-30
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
