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FTMatchday 16

Madura United vs Persebaya Surabaya: Prediction

📍 Gelora Madura Ratu Pamelingan Stadium

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

0 goals
Madura UnitedPersebaya Surabaya
  1. 71'Rachmat Iriantoon

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–
Expected goals (model)–
Team rating (Elo)1506 – 1563

Recent form

Madura UnitedWLLDW
Persebaya SurabayaDDDDW
#TeamPGDPts
1Persebaya Surabaya31+2756
2Madura United31-1434

Head to head

  • Persebaya Surabaya 3–1 Madura United2026-10-26
  • Persebaya Surabaya 1–2 Madura United2026-04-17

Match preview

Madura United host Persebaya Surabaya in the Liga 1 Indonesia on 3 January 2026. Madura United sit 13th on 34 points and Persebaya Surabaya are 4th on 56. Madura United have won 2 of their last 5 (WLLDW), while Persebaya Surabaya have won 1 of 5 (DDDDW). In their last 2 meetings, Madura United won 1, Persebaya Surabaya won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.

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