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FTMatchday 4

Hamburg vs Köln: Prediction

Hamburg2
FT
Köln1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

2 goals
HamburgKöln
  1. Albert Grønbækyellow card10'
  2. Nicolás Capaldoassist Albert Grønbæk44'
  3. Terem Igobor Moffion45'
  4. Yussuf Poulsenassist Albert Grønbæk49'
  5. 54'Gideon Mensahyellow card

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–
Expected goals (model)–
Team rating (Elo)1468 – 1440

Recent form

HamburgWWDLL
KölnDLLWL
#TeamPGDPts
1Hamburg6-59
2Köln6-37

Head to head

  • Hamburg 1–1 Köln2026-03-14
  • Köln 4–1 Hamburg2025-11-02

Match preview

Hamburg host Köln in the Bundesliga on 19 September 2026. Hamburg sit 11th on 9 points and Köln are 13th on 7. Hamburg have won 2 of their last 5 (WWDLL), while Köln have won 1 of 5 (DLLWL). In their last 2 meetings, Hamburg won 0, Köln won 1 and 1 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.

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