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FTMatchday 33

Hamburg vs Freiburg: Prediction

Not enough past results yet.

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–
Expected goals (model)–
Team rating (Elo)1468 – 1518

Recent form

HamburgDLLLW
FreiburgLWWLD
#TeamPGDPts
1Freiburg32-841
2Hamburg32-1436

Head to head

  • Freiburg 2–1 Hamburg2026-01-10

Match preview

Hamburg host Freiburg in the Bundesliga on 10 May 2026. Hamburg sit 11th on 36 points and Freiburg are 8th on 41. Hamburg have won 1 of their last 5 (DLLLW), while Freiburg have won 2 of 5 (LWWLD). In their last 1 meetings, Hamburg won 0, Freiburg won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.

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