Kick-off · Wed, 13 Jan, 01:00 am ISTMatchday 16
Freiburg vs Hamburg: Prediction
Freiburg54%Home win
Hamburg54% Home win22% Draw24% Away win
Tipster consensus · who picked what
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.94 – 1.24
Team rating (Elo)1507 – 1468
Recent form
FreiburgWDWLLHamburgLWWWL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 2 | Hamburg | 6 | -5 | 9 |
Head to head
- Hamburg 3–2 Freiburg2026-05-10
- Freiburg 2–1 Hamburg2026-01-10
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
