FTMatchday 26

Atalanta vs Napoli: Prediction

📍 New Balance Arena

Atalanta2

Napoli1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

3 goals

AtalantaNapoli

18'Sam Beukemaassist Miguel Gutiérrez
37'Juan Jesusyellow card
Kamaldeen Sulemanaon46'
Raoul Bellanovaon57'
Nikola Krstovićon57'
Mario Pasalicassist Nicola Zalewski61'
62'Miguel Gutiérrezon
63'Pasquale Mazzocchion
Giorgio Scalvinion69'
70'Juan Jesuson
70'Antonio Vergaraon
Nicola Zalewskiyellow card77'
Lazar Samardžićassist Lorenzo Bernasconi81'
Sead Kolasinacon84'

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

AtalantaNapoli

56%Possession44%
0.75Expected goals (xG)1.08
10Shots10
7Shots on target4
6Corners1
10Fouls9
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
1Offsides2
3Saves5
519Passes405

Line-ups

Atalanta

8Mario Pasalic
77Davide Zappacosta
15Marten de Roon
23Sead Kolasinac
16Raoul Bellanova
29Marco Carnesecchi
59Nicola Zalewski
4Isak Hien
7Kamaldeen Sulemana
42Giorgio Scalvini
90Nikola Krstović

Napoli

5Juan Jesus
68Stanislav Lobotka
20Eljif Elmas
32Vanja Milinković-Savić
4Alessandro Buongiorno
30Pasquale Mazzocchi
19Rasmus Højlund
3Miguel Gutiérrez
31Sam Beukema
26Antonio Vergara

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1515 – 1465

Recent form

AtalantaDWDWW

NapoliWLWWD

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Napoli	35	+21	70
2	Atalanta	35	+14	54

Head to head

Napoli 3–1 Atalanta2025-11-22

Match preview

Atalanta host Napoli in the Serie A on 22 February 2026. Atalanta sit 7th on 54 points and Napoli are 2nd on 70. Atalanta have won 3 of their last 5 (DWDWW), while Napoli have won 3 of 5 (WLWWD). In their last 1 meetings, Atalanta won 0, Napoli won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.