FTMatchday 9

Atalanta vs AC Milan: Prediction

📍 Gewiss Stadium

Atalanta1

AC Milan1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

2 goals

AtalantaAC Milan

4'Samuele Ricci
9'Santiago Giménezyellow card
Marten de Roonon20'
Ademola Lookmanassist Mario Pasalic35'
46'Rafael Leãoon
62'Santiago Giménezon
Lorenzo Bernasconion71'
Honest Ahanoron72'
77'Luka Modricyellow card
Mario Pasalicon82'
Charles De Ketelaereon82'
Marco Brescianiniyellow card90'
90'Matteo Gabbiayellow card
90'Alexis Saelemaekerson

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

AtalantaAC Milan

56%Possession44%
1Expected goals (xG)0
17Shots6
3Shots on target1
9Corners4
9Fouls8
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
0Offsides1
0Saves2
509Passes407

Line-ups

Atalanta

8Mario Pasalic
77Davide Zappacosta
15Marten de Roon
11Ademola Lookman
3Odilon Kossounou
17Charles De Ketelaere
29Marco Carnesecchi
4Isak Hien
13Éderson
69Honest Ahanor
47Lorenzo Bernasconi

AC Milan

14Luka Modric
16Mike Maignan
23Fikayo Tomori
10Rafael Leão
46Matteo Gabbia
19Youssouf Fofana
56Alexis Saelemaekers
4Samuele Ricci
31Strahinja Pavlović
7Santiago Giménez
33Davide Bartesaghi

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1515 – 1571

Recent form

AtalantaWDDDD

AC MilanWWDWD

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	AC Milan	35	+15	63
2	Atalanta	35	+14	54

Head to head

AC Milan 3–2 Atalanta2026-10-18
AC Milan 2–3 Atalanta2026-05-10

Match preview

Atalanta host AC Milan in the Serie A on 28 October 2025. Atalanta sit 7th on 54 points and AC Milan are 5th on 63. Atalanta have won 1 of their last 5 (WDDDD), while AC Milan have won 3 of 5 (WWDWD). In their last 2 meetings, Atalanta won 1, AC Milan won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.