Kick-off · Sun, 29 Nov, 02:00 pm ISTMatchday 11
Arema vs Persebaya Surabaya: Prediction
Arema37%Home win
Persebaya Surabaya37% Home win26% Draw37% Away win
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.36 – 1.34
Team rating (Elo)1511 – 1568
Recent form
AremaDDLLWPersebaya SurabayaWDLWD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persebaya Surabaya | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 2 | Arema | 7 | +2 | 9 |
Head to head
- Arema 0–4 Persebaya Surabaya2026-04-28
- Persebaya Surabaya 1–1 Arema2025-11-22
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
