FTMatchday 5

AC Milan vs Napoli: Prediction

📍 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan2

Napoli1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

3 goals

AC MilanNapoli

Alexis Saelemaekersassist Christian Pulisic3'
Christian Pulisicassist Youssouf Fofana31'
Pervis Estupiñánred card57'
Christian Pulisicon59'
60'Kevin De Bruynepenalty
Santiago Giménezon69'
Alexis Saelemaekerson69'
72'Kevin De Bruyneon
73'Scott McTominayon
73'Rasmus Højlundon
77'Matteo Politanoon
Youssouf Fofanaon80'
Fikayo Tomorion80'
Adrien Rabiotyellow card90'
90'Stanislav Lobotkaon

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

AC MilanNapoli

36%Possession64%
1Expected goals (xG)3
6Shots19
3Shots on target7
1Corners7
7Fouls7
1Yellow cards0
1Red cards0
1Offsides0
6Saves1
357Passes601

Line-ups

AC Milan

14Luka Modric
16Mike Maignan
12Adrien Rabiot
23Fikayo Tomori
11Christian Pulisic
46Matteo Gabbia
19Youssouf Fofana
56Alexis Saelemaekers
2Pervis Estupiñán
31Strahinja Pavlović
7Santiago Giménez

Napoli

5Juan Jesus
21Matteo Politano
11Kevin De Bruyne
68Stanislav Lobotka
1Alex Meret
99Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa
8Scott McTominay
22Giovanni Di Lorenzo
19Rasmus Højlund
3Miguel Gutiérrez
35Luca Marianucci

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1571 – 1465

Recent form

AC MilanLWW

NapoliWWLW

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Napoli	35	+21	70
2	AC Milan	35	+15	63

Head to head

Napoli 1–0 AC Milan2026-04-06

Match preview

AC Milan host Napoli in the Serie A on 28 September 2025. AC Milan sit 5th on 63 points and Napoli are 2nd on 70. AC Milan have won 2 of their last 3 (LWW), while Napoli have won 3 of 4 (WWLW). In their last 1 meetings, AC Milan won 0, Napoli won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.