FTMatchday 7

AC Milan vs Fiorentina: Prediction

📍 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan2

Fiorentina1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

3 goals

AC MilanFiorentina

Zachary Athekameyellow card50'
54'Hans Nicolussi Cavigliayellow card
55'Robin Gosens
Zachary Athekameon57'
Youssouf Fofanayellow card60'
Rafael Leãoassist Strahinja Pavlović63'
69'Robin Gosenson
70'Jacopo Fazzinion
Fikayo Tomoriyellow card74'
77'Moise Keanon
85'Fabiano Parisiyellow card
Rafael Leãopenalty86'
87'Hans Nicolussi Cavigliaon
88'Luca Ranieriyellow card
88'Rolando Mandragoraon
Alexis Saelemaekerson90'
Rafael Leãoon90'

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

AC MilanFiorentina

56%Possession44%
2Expected goals (xG)1
14Shots5
4Shots on target1
1Corners3
14Fouls5
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
0Offsides2
1Saves2
485Passes362

Line-ups

AC Milan

14Luka Modric
16Mike Maignan
23Fikayo Tomori
10Rafael Leão
46Matteo Gabbia
19Youssouf Fofana
56Alexis Saelemaekers
4Samuele Ricci
31Strahinja Pavlović
33Davide Bartesaghi
24Zachary Athekame

Fiorentina

43David de Gea
8Rolando Mandragora
21Robin Gosens
18Pablo Marí
20Moise Kean
6Luca Ranieri
5Marin Pongračić
2Dodô
14Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
44Nicolò Fagioli
22Jacopo Fazzini

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1571 – 1481

Recent form

AC MilanLWWWD

FiorentinaDLLDL

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	AC Milan	35	+15	63
2	Fiorentina	35	-8	40

Head to head

Fiorentina 1–1 AC Milan2026-01-11

Match preview

AC Milan host Fiorentina in the Serie A on 19 October 2025. AC Milan sit 5th on 63 points and Fiorentina are 15th on 40. AC Milan have won 3 of their last 5 (LWWWD), while Fiorentina have won 0 of 5 (DLLDL). In their last 1 meetings, AC Milan won 0, Fiorentina won 0 and 1 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.