Werder Bremen vs Mainz: Prediction
📍 Weserstadion
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
Werder BremenWDDWW
MainzWLWLL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Werder Bremen | 7 | +3 | 14 |
| 2 | Mainz | 7 | +2 | 10 |
Head to head
- Mainz 2–3 Werder Bremen2026-10-24
- Werder Bremen 0–2 Mainz2026-03-15
- Mainz 1–1 Werder Bremen2025-11-01
Why the model leans Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Werder Bremen won 3 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Werder Bremen 1, Mainz 1, draws 1.
- League table: Werder Bremen #3, Mainz #8.
- Expected goals from the model: Werder Bremen 1.7, Mainz 1.4.
Match preview
Werder Bremen host Mainz in the Bundesliga on 2 March 2027. Werder Bremen sit 3rd on 14 points and Mainz are 8th on 10. Werder Bremen have won 3 of their last 5 (WDDWW), while Mainz have won 2 of 5 (WLWLL). In their last 3 meetings, Werder Bremen won 1, Mainz won 1 and 1 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Werder Bremen 46%, the draw 23% and Mainz 31%, so Werder Bremen are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
