Werder Bremen vs Freiburg: Prediction
📍 Weserstadion
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
Werder BremenWDDWW
FreiburgDWLLW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Werder Bremen | 7 | +3 | 14 |
| 2 | Freiburg | 7 | +3 | 13 |
Head to head
- Freiburg 4–1 Werder Bremen2026-08-30
- Freiburg 1–0 Werder Bremen2026-02-07
- Werder Bremen 0–3 Freiburg2025-09-20
Why the model leans Werder Bremen
- Freiburg rate higher on our strength scale (1518 vs 1489).
- Werder Bremen are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Werder Bremen won 3 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Werder Bremen 0, Freiburg 3, draws 0.
- Expected goals from the model: Werder Bremen 1.7, Freiburg 1.4.
Match preview
Werder Bremen host Freiburg in the Bundesliga on 23 January 2027. Werder Bremen sit 3rd on 14 points and Freiburg are 4th on 13. Werder Bremen have won 3 of their last 5 (WDDWW), while Freiburg have won 2 of 5 (DWLLW). In their last 3 meetings, Werder Bremen won 0, Freiburg won 3 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Werder Bremen 43%, the draw 24% and Freiburg 33%, so Werder Bremen are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
