Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund: Prediction
📍 Weserstadion
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
Werder BremenWDDWW
Borussia DortmundLDWWD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +5 | 15 |
| 2 | Werder Bremen | 7 | +3 | 14 |
Head to head
- Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen2026-10-09
- Werder Bremen 0–2 Borussia Dortmund2026-05-16
- Borussia Dortmund 3–0 Werder Bremen2026-01-13
Why the model leans Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund rate higher on our strength scale (1529 vs 1489).
- Head-to-head in our records: Werder Bremen 0, Borussia Dortmund 2, draws 1.
- Expected goals from the model: Werder Bremen 1.3, Borussia Dortmund 1.8.
Match preview
Werder Bremen host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on 20 February 2027. Werder Bremen sit 3rd on 14 points and Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 15. Werder Bremen have won 3 of their last 5 (WDDWW), while Borussia Dortmund have won 2 of 5 (LDWWD). In their last 3 meetings, Werder Bremen won 0, Borussia Dortmund won 2 and 1 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Werder Bremen 28%, the draw 23% and Borussia Dortmund 49%, so Borussia Dortmund are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
