Kick-off · Matchday 16
Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano: Prediction
Villarreal51%Home win
Rayo Vallecano51% Home win25% Draw24% Away win
Tipster consensus · who picked what
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.64 – 1.03
Team rating (Elo)1529 – 1486
Recent form
VillarrealWDLWLRayo VallecanoLWDDL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 2 | Rayo Vallecano | 8 | -7 | 9 |
Head to head
- Rayo Vallecano 2–0 Villarreal2026-05-17
- Villarreal 4–0 Rayo Vallecano2025-11-01
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
