Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen: Prediction
📍 Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Tipster consensus
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Union BerlinLWDDD
Werder BremenWDDWW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Werder Bremen | 7 | +3 | 14 |
| 2 | Union Berlin | 7 | -10 | 7 |
Head to head
- Union Berlin 1–4 Werder Bremen2026-03-08
- Werder Bremen 1–0 Union Berlin2025-10-24
Why the model leans Union Berlin
- Werder Bremen rate higher on our strength scale (1489 vs 1455).
- Union Berlin are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Head-to-head in our records: Union Berlin 0, Werder Bremen 2, draws 0.
- League table: Union Berlin #15, Werder Bremen #3.
- Expected goals from the model: Union Berlin 1.6, Werder Bremen 1.5.
Match preview
Union Berlin host Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga on 8 May 2027. Union Berlin sit 15th on 7 points and Werder Bremen are 3rd on 14. Union Berlin have won 1 of their last 5 (LWDDD), while Werder Bremen have won 3 of 5 (WDDWW). In their last 2 meetings, Union Berlin won 0, Werder Bremen won 2 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Union Berlin 42%, the draw 24% and Werder Bremen 34%, so Union Berlin are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
