Union Berlin vs Stuttgart: Prediction
📍 Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Tipster consensus
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Recent form
Union BerlinLWDDD
StuttgartLDLWL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stuttgart | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Union Berlin | 7 | -10 | 7 |
Head to head
- Stuttgart 1–1 Union Berlin2026-01-18
- Union Berlin 2–1 Stuttgart2025-08-23
Why the model leans Stuttgart
- Stuttgart rate higher on our strength scale (1517 vs 1455).
- Union Berlin won 1 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Union Berlin 1, Stuttgart 0, draws 1.
- League table: Union Berlin #15, Stuttgart #9.
- Expected goals from the model: Union Berlin 1.4, Stuttgart 1.7.
Match preview
Union Berlin host Stuttgart in the Bundesliga on 17 April 2027. Union Berlin sit 15th on 7 points and Stuttgart are 9th on 9. Union Berlin have won 1 of their last 5 (LWDDD), while Stuttgart have won 1 of 5 (LDLWL). In their last 2 meetings, Union Berlin won 1, Stuttgart won 0 and 1 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Union Berlin 31%, the draw 24% and Stuttgart 45%, so Stuttgart are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
