FTMatchday 14

Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: Prediction

📍 Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Union Berlin3

RB Leipzig1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

4 goals

Union BerlinRB Leipzig

Janik Habereryellow card37'
50'David Raumyellow card
Danilho Doekhiyellow card54'
Oliver Burkeassist Jeong Woo-yeong57'
58'Johan Bakayokoon
Janik Habereron59'
60'Tidiam Gomisassist Conrad Harder
Ilyas Ansahassist Christopher Trimmel64'
Jeong Woo-yeongon67'
Oliver Burkeon67'
72'Conrad Harderyellow card
81'Kosta Nedeljkovićon
Derrick Köhnon85'
Ilyas Ansahon85'
90'Nicolas Seiwaldon
Tim Skarkeassist Andrej Ilić90'

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

Union BerlinRB Leipzig

37%Possession63%
1Expected goals (xG)1
12Shots9
6Shots on target3
4Corners6
7Fouls8
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
1Offsides0
2Saves3
311Passes554

Line-ups

Union Berlin

7Oliver Burke
8Rani Khedira
4Diogo Leite
5Danilho Doekhi
1Frederik Rønnow
19Janik Haberer
11Jeong Woo-yeong
39Derrick Köhn
14Leopold Querfeld
6Aljoscha Kemlein
10Ilyas Ansah

RB Leipzig

1Peter Gulacsi
4Willi Orban
14Christoph Baumgartner
24Xaver Schlager
22David Raum
13Nicolas Seiwald
23Castello Lukeba
9Johan Bakayoko
19Kosta Nedeljković
11Conrad Harder
49Yan Diomande

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1455 – 1472

Recent form

Union BerlinLDWLL

RB LeipzigWWWDW

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	RB Leipzig	32	+21	64
2	Union Berlin	32	-15	35

Head to head

RB Leipzig 3–1 Union Berlin2026-04-24

Match preview

Union Berlin host RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on 12 December 2025. Union Berlin sit 13th on 35 points and RB Leipzig are 3rd on 64. Union Berlin have won 1 of their last 5 (LDWLL), while RB Leipzig have won 4 of 5 (WWWDW). In their last 1 meetings, Union Berlin won 0, RB Leipzig won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.