Union Berlin vs Mainz: Prediction
📍 Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
Union BerlinLWDDD
MainzWLWLL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mainz | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 2 | Union Berlin | 7 | -10 | 7 |
Head to head
- Mainz 1–3 Union Berlin2026-05-10
- Union Berlin 2–2 Mainz2026-01-10
Why the model leans Union Berlin
- Close call: 40% Union Berlin, 24% draw, 36% Mainz.
- Mainz rate higher on our strength scale (1499 vs 1455).
- Union Berlin are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Head-to-head in our records: Union Berlin 1, Mainz 0, draws 1.
- League table: Union Berlin #15, Mainz #8.
Match preview
Union Berlin host Mainz in the Bundesliga on 3 April 2027. Union Berlin sit 15th on 7 points and Mainz are 8th on 10. Union Berlin have won 1 of their last 5 (LWDDD), while Mainz have won 2 of 5 (WLWLL). In their last 2 meetings, Union Berlin won 1, Mainz won 0 and 1 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Union Berlin 40%, the draw 24% and Mainz 36%, so Union Berlin are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
