Union Berlin vs Mainz: Prediction
📍 Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Not enough past results yet.
Match events
4 goals- Diogo Leiteyellow card19'
- 30'⚽Nadiem Amiriassist Jae-Sung Lee
- Danilho Doekhiyellow card57'
- ⇄Aljoscha Kemleinon65'
- ⇄Livan Burcuon65'
- 69'⚽Benedict Hollerbachassist Nikolas Veratschnig
- ⇄Janik Habereron70'
- ⇄Oliver Burkeon70'
- ⚽Jeong Woo-yeongassist Derrick Köhn77'
- ⇄Diogo Leiteon78'
- 78'⇄Nadiem Amirion
- 78'⇄Benedict Hollerbachon
- 85'⇄Phillip Tietzon
- ⚽Marin Ljubicic86'
Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.
Match stats
- 56%Possession44%
- 2.23Expected goals (xG)1.10
- 16Shots9
- 5Shots on target6
- 2Corners1
- 9Fouls8
- 2Yellow cards0
- 0Red cards0
- 0Offsides1
- 4Saves3
- 473Passes381
Line-ups
Union Berlin
- 7Oliver Burke
- 8Rani Khedira
- 4Diogo Leite
- 5Danilho Doekhi
- 1Frederik Rønnow
- 19Janik Haberer
- 39Derrick Köhn
- 14Leopold Querfeld
- 6Aljoscha Kemlein
- 23Andrej Ilić
- 9Livan Burcu
Mainz
- 31Dominik Kohr
- 16Stefan Bell
- 21Danny da Costa
- 30Silvan Widmer
- 10Nadiem Amiri
- 7Jae-Sung Lee
- 20Phillip Tietz
- 22Nikolas Veratschnig
- 17Benedict Hollerbach
- 33Daniel Batz
- 6Kaishu Sano
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
Union BerlinWLLWW
MainzDLLDD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mainz | 32 | -8 | 39 |
| 2 | Union Berlin | 32 | -15 | 35 |
Head to head
- Mainz 1–3 Union Berlin2026-05-10
Match preview
Union Berlin host Mainz in the Bundesliga on 10 January 2026. Union Berlin sit 13th on 35 points and Mainz are 10th on 39. Union Berlin have won 3 of their last 5 (WLLWW), while Mainz have won 0 of 5 (DLLDD). In their last 1 meetings, Union Berlin won 1, Mainz won 0 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
