Union Berlin vs Freiburg: Prediction
📍 Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
Union BerlinLWDDD
FreiburgDWLLW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 2 | Union Berlin | 7 | -10 | 7 |
Head to head
- Freiburg 0–1 Union Berlin2026-03-15
- Union Berlin 0–0 Freiburg2025-11-01
Why the model leans Freiburg
- Close call: 37% Union Berlin, 24% draw, 39% Freiburg.
- Freiburg rate higher on our strength scale (1518 vs 1455).
- Union Berlin won 1 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Union Berlin 1, Freiburg 0, draws 1.
- League table: Union Berlin #15, Freiburg #4.
Match preview
Union Berlin host Freiburg in the Bundesliga on 13 March 2027. Union Berlin sit 15th on 7 points and Freiburg are 4th on 13. Union Berlin have won 1 of their last 5 (LWDDD), while Freiburg have won 2 of 5 (DWLLW). In their last 2 meetings, Union Berlin won 1, Freiburg won 0 and 1 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Union Berlin 37%, the draw 24% and Freiburg 39%, so Freiburg are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
