Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: Prediction
📍 Stadion An der Alten Försterei
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Union BerlinLWDDD
Borussia MönchengladbachLLLWD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Berlin | 7 | -10 | 7 |
| 2 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | -6 | 4 |
Head to head
- Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–0 Union Berlin2026-02-28
- Union Berlin 3–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach2025-10-17
Why the model leans Union Berlin
- Union Berlin are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Union Berlin 1, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1, draws 0.
- Expected goals from the model: Union Berlin 1.8, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.3.
Match preview
Union Berlin host Borussia Mönchengladbach in the Bundesliga on 22 May 2027. Union Berlin sit 15th on 7 points and Borussia Mönchengladbach are 17th on 4. Union Berlin have won 1 of their last 5 (LWDDD), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1 of 5 (LLLWD). In their last 2 meetings, Union Berlin won 1, Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Union Berlin 49%, the draw 23% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 28%, so Union Berlin are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
