Union Berlin vs Bayern Munich: Prediction
📍 Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Tipster consensus
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Recent form
Union BerlinLWDDD
Bayern MunichDWDWD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 7 | +18 | 15 |
| 2 | Union Berlin | 7 | -10 | 7 |
Head to head
- Bayern Munich 7–0 Union Berlin2026-09-18
- Bayern Munich 4–0 Union Berlin2026-03-21
Why the model leans Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich rate higher on our strength scale (1545 vs 1455).
- Union Berlin won 1 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Union Berlin 0, Bayern Munich 2, draws 0.
- League table: Union Berlin #15, Bayern Munich #1.
- Expected goals from the model: Union Berlin 1.1, Bayern Munich 2.2.
Match preview
Union Berlin host Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga on 13 February 2027. Union Berlin sit 15th on 7 points and Bayern Munich are 1st on 15. Union Berlin have won 1 of their last 5 (LWDDD), while Bayern Munich have won 2 of 5 (DWDWD). In their last 2 meetings, Union Berlin won 0, Bayern Munich won 2 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Union Berlin 17%, the draw 19% and Bayern Munich 64%, so Bayern Munich are the slight favourites, with 1-2 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
