Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen: Prediction
📍 Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
Union BerlinLWDDD
Bayer LeverkusenWWWLL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 2 | Union Berlin | 7 | -10 | 7 |
Head to head
- Bayer Leverkusen 4–0 Union Berlin2026-09-05
- Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 Union Berlin2025-10-04
Why the model leans Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen rate higher on our strength scale (1506 vs 1455).
- Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of their last 5.
- Union Berlin won 1 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Union Berlin 0, Bayer Leverkusen 2, draws 0.
- League table: Union Berlin #15, Bayer Leverkusen #7.
Match preview
Union Berlin host Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on 30 January 2027. Union Berlin sit 15th on 7 points and Bayer Leverkusen are 7th on 12. Union Berlin have won 1 of their last 5 (LWDDD), while Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of 5 (WWWLL). In their last 2 meetings, Union Berlin won 0, Bayer Leverkusen won 2 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Union Berlin 34%, the draw 24% and Bayer Leverkusen 42%, so Bayer Leverkusen are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
