Kick-off · Thu, 4 Mar, 01:30 am ISTMatchday 28
Sunderland vs Manchester United: Prediction
Sunderland40%Away win
Manchester United35% Home win25% Draw40% Away win
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.34 – 1.47
Team rating (Elo)1451 – 1532
Recent form
SunderlandLLLLDManchester UnitedLDDDL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester United | 8 | -3 | 7 |
| 2 | Sunderland | 8 | -8 | 5 |
Head to head
- Sunderland 0–0 Manchester United2026-05-09
- Manchester United 2–0 Sunderland2025-10-04
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
