Stuttgart vs Freiburg: Prediction
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Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
StuttgartLDLWL
FreiburgDWLLW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 2 | Stuttgart | 7 | 0 | 9 |
Head to head
- Stuttgart 1–0 Freiburg2026-02-01
- Freiburg 3–1 Stuttgart2025-09-13
Why the model leans Stuttgart
- Stuttgart are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Head-to-head in our records: Stuttgart 1, Freiburg 1, draws 0.
- League table: Stuttgart #9, Freiburg #4.
- Expected goals from the model: Stuttgart 1.9, Freiburg 1.2.
Match preview
Stuttgart host Freiburg in the Bundesliga on 24 April 2027. Stuttgart sit 9th on 9 points and Freiburg are 4th on 13. Stuttgart have won 1 of their last 5 (LDLWL), while Freiburg have won 2 of 5 (DWLLW). In their last 2 meetings, Stuttgart won 1, Freiburg won 1 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Stuttgart 54%, the draw 22% and Freiburg 24%, so Stuttgart are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
