St Pauli vs Hamburg: Prediction
📍 Millerntor-Stadion
Not enough past results yet.
Match events
0 goals- Adam Dźwigałayellow card7'
- 14'⇄Alexander Røssing-Lelesiiton
- 24'Nicolai Rembergyellow card
- ⇄Martijn Kaarson46'
- ⇄Adam Dźwigałaon65'
- ⇄Mathias Pereira-Lageon65'
- 68'⇄Mathias Pereira-Lageon
- 68'⇄Damion Downson
- 68'⇄Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörfferon
- 88'⇄Fábio Vieiraon
Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.
Match stats
- 43%Possession57%
- 0.33Expected goals (xG)0.35
- 8Shots5
- 3Shots on target2
- 5Corners4
- 15Fouls13
- 1Yellow cards1
- 0Red cards0
- 0Offsides3
- 2Saves3
- 420Passes581
Line-ups
St Pauli
- 28Mathias Pereira-Lage
- 5Hauke Wahl
- 25Adam Dźwigała
- 8Eric Smith
- 16Joel Fujita
- 6James Sands
- 22Nikola Vasilj
- 11Arkadiusz Pyrka
- 3Karol Mets
- 19Martijn Kaars
- 23Louis Oppie
Hamburg
- 18Bakery Jatta
- 25Jordan Torunarigha
- 1Daniel Fernandes
- 24Nicolás Capaldo
- 20Fábio Vieira
- 11Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer
- 28Miro Muheim
- 19Damion Downs
- 38Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit
- 21Nicolai Remberg
- 44Luka Vušković
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
St PauliDWDLL
HamburgWLDLD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamburg | 32 | -14 | 36 |
| 2 | St Pauli | 32 | -31 | 23 |
Head to head
- Hamburg 0–2 St Pauli2025-08-29
Match preview
St Pauli host Hamburg in the Bundesliga on 23 January 2026. St Pauli sit 18th on 23 points and Hamburg are 11th on 36. St Pauli have won 1 of their last 5 (DWDLL), while Hamburg have won 1 of 5 (WLDLD). In their last 1 meetings, St Pauli won 1, Hamburg won 0 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
