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Kick-off · Matchday 34

Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen: Prediction

📍 VELTINS-Arena

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.46 – 1.65
Team rating (Elo)1456 – 1506

Recent form

Schalke 04DLLDL
Bayer LeverkusenWWWLL
#TeamPGDPts
1Bayer Leverkusen7+212
2Schalke 047-73

Head to head

Not enough past results yet.

Why the model leans Bayer Leverkusen

  • Bayer Leverkusen rate higher on our strength scale (1506 vs 1456).
  • Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of their last 5.
  • Schalke 04 won 0 of their last 5.
  • League table: Schalke 04 #18, Bayer Leverkusen #7.
  • Expected goals from the model: Schalke 04 1.5, Bayer Leverkusen 1.7.

Match preview

Schalke 04 host Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on 22 May 2027. Schalke 04 sit 18th on 3 points and Bayer Leverkusen are 7th on 12. Schalke 04 have won 0 of their last 5 (DLLDL), while Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of 5 (WWWLL). There is no recent head-to-head record between these sides in our data. TipKhel's model gives Schalke 04 34%, the draw 24% and Bayer Leverkusen 42%, so Bayer Leverkusen are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.

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