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FTMatchday 3

Sabah Baku vs AGF Aarhus: Prediction

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

1 goal
Sabah BakuAGF Aarhus
  1. 8'Rasmus Carstensenyellow card
  2. 32'Jacob Andersenyellow card
  3. Patrick Mbinaon58'
  4. Veljko Simićassist Joy-Lance Mickels59'
  5. 64'Gift Linkson

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–
Expected goals (model)–
Team rating (Elo)1531 – 1497

Recent form

Sabah BakuWWWWL
AGF AarhusLWW
#TeamPGDPts
1Sabah Baku9+618
2AGF Aarhus4-36

Head to head

  • AGF Aarhus 2–1 Sabah Baku2026-08-05

Match preview

Sabah Baku host AGF Aarhus in the UEFA Champions League on 11 August 2026. Sabah Baku sit 1st on 18 points and AGF Aarhus are 31st on 6. Sabah Baku have won 4 of their last 5 (WWWWL), while AGF Aarhus have won 2 of 3 (LWW). In their last 1 meetings, Sabah Baku won 0, AGF Aarhus won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.

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