FTMatchday 8

Real Madrid vs Villarreal: Prediction

📍 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

Real Madrid3

Villarreal1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

4 goals

Real MadridVillarreal

12'Sergi Cardonayellow card
21'Santiago Mouriñoyellow card
Aurelien Tchouameniyellow card33'
Franco Mastantuonoyellow card45'
46'Alberto Moleiroon
46'Tajon Buchananon
Vinícius Júniorassist Kylian Mbappé47'
Arda Güleron64'
Daniel Ceballoson64'
69'Pape Gueyeyellow card
Vinícius Júniorpenalty69'
73'Georges Mikautadzeassist Pape Gueye
73'Pape Gueyeon
Franco Mastantuonoon75'
77'Santiago Mouriñoyellow card
77'Santiago Mouriñored card
Kylian Mbappéassist Brahim81'
82'Tanitoluwa Oluwaseyion
Kylian Mbappéon83'
86'Santi Comesañaon

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

Real MadridVillarreal

69%Possession31%
4Expected goals (xG)1
26Shots9
7Shots on target2
4Corners0
9Fouls14
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards1
0Offsides0
1Saves4
708Passes317

Line-ups

Real Madrid

1Thibaut Courtois
19Daniel Ceballos
7Vinícius Júnior
10Kylian Mbappé
3Éder Militão
8Federico Valverde
14Aurelien Tchouameni
15Arda Güler
18Álvaro Carreras
24Dean Huijsen
30Franco Mastantuono

Villarreal

16Thomas Partey
17Tajon Buchanan
18Pape Gueye
14Santi Comesaña
21Tanitoluwa Oluwaseyi
25Arnau Tenas
12Renato Veiga
23Sergi Cardona
20Alberto Moleiro
15Santiago Mouriño
4Rafa Marín

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1567 – 1450

Recent form

Real MadridWWWLW

VillarrealLWWWD

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Real Madrid	35	+40	82
2	Villarreal	35	+23	66

Head to head

Real Madrid 1–0 Villarreal2026-10-10
Villarreal 0–2 Real Madrid2026-01-24

Match preview

Real Madrid host Villarreal in the La Liga on 4 October 2025. Real Madrid sit 2nd on 82 points and Villarreal are 3rd on 66. Real Madrid have won 4 of their last 5 (WWWLW), while Villarreal have won 3 of 5 (LWWWD). In their last 2 meetings, Real Madrid won 2, Villarreal won 0 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.