Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: Prediction
Not enough past results yet.
Match events
4 goals- ⚽Kylian Mbappépenalty14'
- ⚽Álvaro Carrerasassist Kylian Mbappé17'
- ⚽Jude Bellinghamassist Vinícius Júnior35'
- ⇄Federico Valverdeon45'
- 51'⚽Sergio Camello
Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
Real MadridWWWLW
Rayo VallecanoWWDLW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Madrid | 9 | +12 | 21 |
| 2 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | -4 | 12 |
Head to head
- Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano2026-02-01
- Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Real Madrid2025-11-09
Match preview
Real Madrid host Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga on 12 September 2026. Real Madrid sit 3rd on 21 points and Rayo Vallecano are 9th on 12. Real Madrid have won 4 of their last 5 (WWWLW), while Rayo Vallecano have won 3 of 5 (WWDLW). In their last 2 meetings, Real Madrid won 1, Rayo Vallecano won 0 and 1 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
