FTMatchday 22

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: Prediction

📍 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

Real Madrid2

Rayo Vallecano1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

3 goals

Real MadridRayo Vallecano

Jude Bellinghamon10'
Vinícius Júniorassist Brahim15'
Raúl Asencioon46'
49'Jorge de Frutosassist Alvaro Garcia
53'Gerard Gumbauyellow card
56'Jorge de Frutoson
56'Gerard Gumbauon
57'Pep Chavarríayellow card
Franco Mastantuonoon60'
65'Isi Palazónyellow card
Daniel Ceballosyellow card69'
72'Óscar Valentínyellow card
Dean Huijsenon77'
Arda Güleron77'
77'Alvaro Garciaon
80'Pathé Cissred card
82'Augusto Batallayellow card
Vinícius Júnioryellow card83'
83'Ilias Akhomachyellow card
83'Isi Palazónon
84'Ilias Akhomachon
90'Pep Chavarríayellow card
90'Alfonso Espinoyellow card
90'Pep Chavarríared card
Kylian Mbappépenalty90'

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

Real MadridRayo Vallecano

57%Possession43%
2.14Expected goals (xG)0.96
16Shots11
6Shots on target4
9Corners4
6Fouls18
2Yellow cards8
0Red cards2
1Offsides1
3Saves4
580Passes441

Line-ups

Real Madrid

1Thibaut Courtois
7Vinícius Júnior
10Kylian Mbappé
8Federico Valverde
14Aurelien Tchouameni
5Jude Bellingham
6Eduardo Camavinga
15Arda Güler
24Dean Huijsen
30Franco Mastantuono
17Raúl Asencio

Rayo Vallecano

18Alvaro Garcia
24Florian Lejeune
15Gerard Gumbau
19Jorge de Frutos
2Andrei Rațiu
7Isi Palazón
3Pep Chavarría
6Pathé Ciss
12Ilias Akhomach
13Augusto Batalla
32Nobel Mendy

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1567 – 1502

Recent form

Real MadridWWWWW

Rayo VallecanoLDWLL

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Real Madrid	35	+40	82
2	Rayo Vallecano	35	-2	48

Head to head

Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo Vallecano2026-09-12
Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Real Madrid2025-11-09

Match preview

Real Madrid host Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga on 1 February 2026. Real Madrid sit 2nd on 82 points and Rayo Vallecano are 6th on 48. Real Madrid have won 5 of their last 5 (WWWWW), while Rayo Vallecano have won 1 of 5 (LDWLL). In their last 2 meetings, Real Madrid won 1, Rayo Vallecano won 0 and 1 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.