RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen: Prediction
📍 Red Bull Arena Leipzig
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
RB LeipzigWLLWW
Werder BremenWDDWW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Werder Bremen | 7 | +3 | 14 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 7 | +6 | 12 |
Head to head
- Werder Bremen 3–1 RB Leipzig2026-09-05
- Werder Bremen 1–2 RB Leipzig2026-04-04
- RB Leipzig 2–0 Werder Bremen2025-11-23
Why the model leans RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- RB Leipzig won 3 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: RB Leipzig 2, Werder Bremen 1, draws 0.
- Expected goals from the model: RB Leipzig 2.1, Werder Bremen 1.2.
Match preview
RB Leipzig host Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga on 30 January 2027. RB Leipzig sit 6th on 12 points and Werder Bremen are 3rd on 14. RB Leipzig have won 3 of their last 5 (WLLWW), while Werder Bremen have won 3 of 5 (WDDWW). In their last 3 meetings, RB Leipzig won 2, Werder Bremen won 1 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives RB Leipzig 59%, the draw 21% and Werder Bremen 20%, so RB Leipzig are the slight favourites, with 2-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
