Kick-off · Sat, 5 Dec, 08:00 pm ISTMatchday 12
RB Leipzig vs Mainz: Prediction
RB Leipzig53%Home win
Mainz53% Home win22% Draw25% Away win
Tipster consensus · who picked what
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.92 – 1.25
Team rating (Elo)1482 – 1514
Recent form
RB LeipzigWWLLWMainzWWLWL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mainz | 6 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 6 | +4 | 9 |
Head to head
- RB Leipzig 1–2 Mainz2026-01-31
- Mainz 0–1 RB Leipzig2025-09-13
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
