RB Leipzig vs Freiburg: Prediction
📍 Red Bull Arena Leipzig
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
RB LeipzigLLWWL
FreiburgDWLLW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 7 | +6 | 12 |
Head to head
- Freiburg 4–1 RB Leipzig2026-05-16
- RB Leipzig 2–0 Freiburg2026-01-14
Why the model leans RB Leipzig
- Freiburg rate higher on our strength scale (1518 vs 1472).
- RB Leipzig are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Head-to-head in our records: RB Leipzig 1, Freiburg 1, draws 0.
- Expected goals from the model: RB Leipzig 2.0, Freiburg 1.2.
Match preview
RB Leipzig host Freiburg in the Bundesliga on 3 April 2027. RB Leipzig sit 6th on 12 points and Freiburg are 4th on 13. RB Leipzig have won 2 of their last 5 (LLWWL), while Freiburg have won 2 of 5 (DWLLW). In their last 2 meetings, RB Leipzig won 1, Freiburg won 1 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives RB Leipzig 55%, the draw 22% and Freiburg 23%, so RB Leipzig are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
