RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen: Prediction
📍 Red Bull Arena Leipzig
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
RB LeipzigWLLWW
Bayer LeverkusenWWWLL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB Leipzig | 7 | +6 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | +2 | 12 |
Head to head
- Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 RB Leipzig2026-09-20
- Bayer Leverkusen 4–1 RB Leipzig2026-05-02
- RB Leipzig 1–3 Bayer Leverkusen2025-12-20
Why the model leans RB Leipzig
- Bayer Leverkusen rate higher on our strength scale (1506 vs 1482).
- RB Leipzig are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- RB Leipzig won 3 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: RB Leipzig 0, Bayer Leverkusen 3, draws 0.
- Expected goals from the model: RB Leipzig 1.9, Bayer Leverkusen 1.3.
Match preview
RB Leipzig host Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on 13 February 2027. RB Leipzig sit 6th on 12 points and Bayer Leverkusen are 7th on 12. RB Leipzig have won 3 of their last 5 (WLLWW), while Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of 5 (WWWLL). In their last 3 meetings, RB Leipzig won 0, Bayer Leverkusen won 3 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives RB Leipzig 51%, the draw 23% and Bayer Leverkusen 26%, so RB Leipzig are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
