FTMatchday 12

Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid: Prediction

📍 Estadio de Vallecas

Rayo Vallecano0

Real Madrid0

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

0 goals

Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid

Andrei Rațiuyellow card15'
Pedro Díazon27'
Alvaro Garciayellow card33'
36'Dean Huijsenyellow card
44'Brahimyellow card
Jorge de Frutosyellow card45'
46'Dean Huijsenon
Isi Palazónon71'
Jorge de Frutoson71'
71'Brahimon
79'Eduardo Camavingaon
Unai Lopezon83'
Alvaro Garciaon83'
83'Federico Valverdeon

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid

46%Possession54%
1.20Expected goals (xG)0.98
13Shots21
2Shots on target5
5Corners8
17Fouls7
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
1Offsides1
5Saves2
368Passes445

Line-ups

Rayo Vallecano

17Unai Lopez
18Alvaro Garcia
24Florian Lejeune
19Jorge de Frutos
2Andrei Rațiu
4Pedro Díaz
7Isi Palazón
3Pep Chavarría
6Pathé Ciss
13Augusto Batalla
32Nobel Mendy

Real Madrid

1Thibaut Courtois
7Vinícius Júnior
21Brahim
10Kylian Mbappé
8Federico Valverde
5Jude Bellingham
6Eduardo Camavinga
15Arda Güler
18Álvaro Carreras
24Dean Huijsen
17Raúl Asencio

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1502 – 1567

Recent form

Rayo VallecanoLWWWL

Real MadridWWWWL

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Real Madrid	35	+40	82
2	Rayo Vallecano	35	-2	48

Head to head

Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo Vallecano2026-09-12
Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano2026-02-01

Match preview

Rayo Vallecano host Real Madrid in the La Liga on 9 November 2025. Rayo Vallecano sit 6th on 48 points and Real Madrid are 2nd on 82. Rayo Vallecano have won 3 of their last 5 (LWWWL), while Real Madrid have won 4 of 5 (WWWWL). In their last 2 meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 0, Real Madrid won 2 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.