Kick-off · Sat, 27 Feb, 07:00 pm ISTMatchday 21
Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar: Prediction
Persebaya Surabaya59%Home win
PSM Makassar59% Home win22% Draw19% Away win
Most likely score1-0
Expected goals (model)1.90 – 0.96
Team rating (Elo)1568 – 1470
Recent form
Persebaya SurabayaWDLWDPSM MakassarDLWWD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persebaya Surabaya | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 2 | PSM Makassar | 7 | -3 | 9 |
Head to head
- PSM Makassar 1–0 Persebaya Surabaya2026-10-22
- Persebaya Surabaya 1–0 PSM Makassar2026-02-25
- PSM Makassar 1–1 Persebaya Surabaya2025-12-06
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
