Paderborn vs Union Berlin: Prediction
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Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
PaderbornWLDWD
Union BerlinLWDDD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paderborn | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Union Berlin | 7 | -10 | 7 |
Head to head
Not enough past results yet.
Why the model leans Paderborn
- Paderborn rate higher on our strength scale (1497 vs 1455).
- Paderborn are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Union Berlin won 1 of their last 5.
- League table: Paderborn #10, Union Berlin #15.
- Expected goals from the model: Paderborn 1.9, Union Berlin 1.2.
Match preview
Paderborn host Union Berlin in the Bundesliga on 15 May 2027. Paderborn sit 10th on 9 points and Union Berlin are 15th on 7. Paderborn have won 2 of their last 5 (WLDWD), while Union Berlin have won 1 of 5 (LWDDD). There is no recent head-to-head record between these sides in our data. TipKhel's model gives Paderborn 54%, the draw 22% and Union Berlin 24%, so Paderborn are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
