Paderborn vs Mainz: Prediction
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Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
PaderbornWLDWD
MainzWLWLL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mainz | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 2 | Paderborn | 7 | 0 | 9 |
Head to head
- Mainz 0–0 Paderborn2026-08-29
Why the model leans Paderborn
- Paderborn are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Expected goals from the model: Paderborn 1.8, Mainz 1.4.
Match preview
Paderborn host Mainz in the Bundesliga on 23 January 2027. Paderborn sit 10th on 9 points and Mainz are 8th on 10. Paderborn have won 2 of their last 5 (WLDWD), while Mainz have won 2 of 5 (WLWLL). In their last 1 meetings, Paderborn won 0, Mainz won 0 and 1 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Paderborn 47%, the draw 23% and Mainz 30%, so Paderborn are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
