Kick-off · Thu, 4 Mar, 01:30 am ISTMatchday 28
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United: Prediction
Nottingham Forest43%Home win
Newcastle United43% Home win25% Draw32% Away win
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.52 – 1.29
Team rating (Elo)1465 – 1490
Recent form
Nottingham ForestWLLLDNewcastle UnitedLWLLW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United | 8 | -2 | 11 |
| 2 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | -4 | 6 |
Head to head
- Nottingham Forest 1–1 Newcastle United2026-05-10
- Newcastle United 2–0 Nottingham Forest2025-10-05
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
