Kick-off · Sat, 20 Mar, 08:30 pm ISTMatchday 30
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa: Prediction
Nottingham Forest39%Home win
Aston Villa39% Home win25% Draw36% Away win
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.42 – 1.38
Team rating (Elo)1465 – 1518
Recent form
Nottingham ForestWLLLDAston VillaLWDWW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 |
| 2 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | -4 | 6 |
Head to head
- Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham Forest2026-09-12
- Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa2026-04-12
- Aston Villa 3–1 Nottingham Forest2026-01-03
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
