FTMatchday 15

Newcastle United vs Burnley: Prediction

📍 St James Park

Newcastle United2

Burnley1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

3 goals

Newcastle UnitedBurnley

Bruno Guimarães31'
35'Kyle Walkeryellow card
43'Lucas Piresred card
Anthony Gordonassist Anthony Gordon45'
46'Lyle Fosteron
Valentino Livramentoyellow card52'
Dan Burnon63'
Joe Willockon63'
65'Florentino Luíson
Anthony Gordonon74'
Nick Woltemadeon74'
86'Jacob Bruun Larsenon
86'Armando Brojaon
89'Josh Laurentyellow card
Jacob Ramseyyellow card90'
Jacob Ramseyon90'
90'Hjalmar Ekdalon
90'Zian Flemmingassist Zian Flemming

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

Newcastle UnitedBurnley

69%Possession31%
2Expected goals (xG)1
17Shots8
7Shots on target3
9Corners9
9Fouls11
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1
3Offsides2
2Saves6
586Passes254

Line-ups

Newcastle United

33Dan Burn
5Fabian Schär
32Aaron Ramsdale
27Nick Woltemade
10Anthony Gordon
28Joe Willock
39Bruno Guimarães
41Jacob Ramsey
12Malick Thiaw
20Anthony Elanga
21Valentino Livramento

Burnley

2Kyle Walker
1Martin Dubravka
24Josh Cullen
7Jacob Bruun Larsen
16Florentino Luís
27Armando Broja
8Chimuanya Ugochukwu
18Hjalmar Ekdal
9Lyle Foster
5Maxime Esteve
23Lucas Pires

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1529 – 1497

Recent form

Newcastle UnitedLWLWD

BurnleyLLLLL

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Newcastle United	38	-2	49
2	Burnley	38	-37	22

Head to head

Burnley 1–3 Newcastle United2025-12-30

Match preview

Newcastle United host Burnley in the Premier League on 6 December 2025. Newcastle United sit 12th on 49 points and Burnley are 19th on 22. Newcastle United have won 2 of their last 5 (LWLWD), while Burnley have won 0 of 5 (LLLLL). In their last 1 meetings, Newcastle United won 1, Burnley won 0 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.