FTMatchday 6

Newcastle United vs Arsenal: Prediction

📍 St James Park

Newcastle United1

Arsenal2

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

3 goals

Newcastle UnitedArsenal

Nick Woltemadeassist Sandro Tonali34'
46'Cristhian Mosqueraon
56'Riccardo Calafioriyellow card
Jacob Murphyon66'
Nick Woltemadeon67'
Anthony Gordonon67'
70'Bukayo Sakaon
70'Riccardo Calafiorion
Valentino Livramentoon77'
82'Martín Zubimendion
Joelintonyellow card83'
84'Mikel Merinoassist Declan Rice
Dan Burnyellow card88'
88'Leandro Trossardon
90'Gabriel Magalhãesassist Martin Ødegaard
Joelintonon90'

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

Newcastle UnitedArsenal

36%Possession64%
0Expected goals (xG)2
8Shots20
3Shots on target7
7Corners12
8Fouls9
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
1Offsides0
5Saves2
271Passes490

Line-ups

Newcastle United

23Jacob Murphy
33Dan Burn
1Nick Pope
7Joelinton
8Sandro Tonali
27Nick Woltemade
10Anthony Gordon
4Sven Botman
39Bruno Guimarães
12Malick Thiaw
21Valentino Livramento

Arsenal

1David Raya
19Leandro Trossard
41Declan Rice
7Bukayo Saka
6Gabriel Magalhães
10Eberechi Eze
12Jurrien Timber
36Martín Zubimendi
14Viktor Gyökeres
33Riccardo Calafiori
3Cristhian Mosquera

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1475 – 1653

Recent form

Newcastle UnitedDWLDW

ArsenalLWWDW

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	38	+44	85
2	Newcastle United	38	-2	49

Head to head

Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle United2026-04-25

Match preview

Newcastle United host Arsenal in the Premier League on 28 September 2025. Newcastle United sit 12th on 49 points and Arsenal are 1st on 85. Newcastle United have won 2 of their last 5 (DWLDW), while Arsenal have won 3 of 5 (LWWDW). In their last 1 meetings, Newcastle United won 0, Arsenal won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.